Think2030’s blind spot analysis, an assessment of 25 macro forces, highlights trends that will likely reshape the sector over the next decade. While perspectives varied across different teams, several themes emerged that demand closer attention.

Quantum computing: A strategic risk and opportunity

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Quantum computing is fast becoming a geopolitical and economic priority. Unlike traditional computing, which relies on binary bits, quantum computing leverages qubits to perform calculations at unprecedented speeds. The implications are profound—current cryptographic methods could become obsolete overnight, with major consequences for cybersecurity, financial transactions, and data privacy.

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For insurers, quantum computing presents a paradox. On one hand, it enables more sophisticated risk modeling and predictive analytics. On the other, it raises questions about data security and fraud prevention. If quantum technology can break encryption in seconds, how can insurers protect sensitive customer data? Policymakers and businesses alike will need to anticipate these shifts before they become urgent threats.

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Key question: How prepared is the insurance industry for a world where current encryption methods are no longer secure?

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The collision of risk pooling and hyperpersonalization

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Insurance has long relied on risk pooling—spreading financial exposure across a broad base to maintain affordability. Yet advances in AI and big data are pushing the industry toward hyperpersonalization, where policies are tailored to an individual’s behaviors and risk profile.
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This shift presents a dilemma: while personalization improves efficiency and customer experience, it risks fragmenting traditional risk pools, leading to higher premiums for those deemed high risk.

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In health and auto insurance, hyperpersonalization is already evident, with dynamic pricing models and behavior-based adjustments. But what happens when algorithms refine risk segmentation to the point where coverage becomes unattainable for some? Regulators may need to step in to balance market efficiency with societal fairness.

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Key question : can insurers embrace personalization without undermining the fundamental principle of risk-sharing?

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Gen Z and the changing expectations of policyholders

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As the largest generational cohort, Gen Z is already influencing industries through their values, consumption habits, and expectations. Unlike previous generations, they demand transparency, digital-first services, and corporate accountability on issues such as climate change and social justice.
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For insurers, this shift requires a fundamental rethink. Traditional policies, rigid pricing structures, and outdated customer service models are ill-suited to a generation accustomed to seamless digital experiences and subscription-based services.
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Meeting Gen Z’s expectations will require more than incremental adjustments—it demands a structural shift toward user-centric, flexible, and value-driven insurance models.

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Key question: How will insurers adapt to a generation that prioritizes digtal access, sustainability, and trust?

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The risks of of digital identities

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As industries move further into digital ecosystems, securing digital identities becomes increasingly critical. Identity fraud is rising, fueled by large-scale data breaches and sophisticated cyberattacks. For insurers, compromised digital identities pose a direct risk to both customers and business operations.
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The challenge extends beyond individual identity theft. In a world of deepfakes, AI-generated scams, and manipulated data, verifying the authenticity of claims, policyholders, and transactions is becoming more complex. Blockchain and biometric authentication offer potential solutions, but their effectiveness depends on widespread adoption and regulatory alignment.

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Key questions: Are insurers prepared for the growing risks associated with digital identity fraud?

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Emerging risks and the changing nature of insurance

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Beyond these core themes, Think2030’s analysis highlights other trends with far-reaching implications:

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Cyber Warfare and Systemic Risk

As economies become more interconnected, large-scale cyberattacks pose an increasing threat to critical infrastructure, financial institutions, and national security. The insurance industry faces the challenge of pricing policies for risks that are difficult to quantify and constantly evolving. The potential for cascading failures across global networks raises difficult questions about liability and coverage limits.

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Humanoid and Autonomous Robots

The integration of robotics into industries such as healthcare, manufacturing, and logistics is accelerating. While automation improves efficiency, it raises questions about liability when autonomous systems fail. Who is responsible when an AI-driven financial advisor makes a costly error, or when an autonomous vehicle is involved in an accident? Insurers will need to develop new frameworks for assessing and pricing these risks.

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Climate Change and the Future of Insurability

Extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and severe. In some regions, climate change is already making insurance unaffordable or unavailable. The industry must reconsider how it models and prices climate risk, potentially shifting toward parametric insurance models that pay out based on predefined triggers rather than traditional claims assessments.

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Other blind spots to watch

Think2030 also flagged risks related to smart cities, decentralized finance, economic instability, declining trust in institutions, and precarious employment trends. While not immediate concerns, these forces could have profound long-term effects on the insurance industry.

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A sector at a crossroads

The blind spot analysis underscores a fundamental truth: the future of insurance will be shaped by forces that extend far beyond traditional risk models. Quantum computing, hyperpersonalization, generational shifts, and digital security threats will redefine how insurers operate and compete.

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Those that embrace change—rethinking their business models, investing in emerging technologies, and anticipating regulatory shifts—will be better positioned to navigate uncertainty. The challenge is not merely adapting to change, but staying ahead of it.