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Why Trendtracker
Insurers face long-tail risks that demand decades of planning, yet too often rely on short-term views. Trendtracker automates horizon scanning, giving insurers up-to-date foresight to manage capital exposure, strengthen underwriting, and identify profitable markets.
Why Trendtracker?
Why Trendtracker?
Why Trendtracker?
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The insurance industry in 2025 faces rising pressure from climate risk, demographic shifts, and new regulation. Natural catastrophes and secondary perils are driving higher losses, while the protection gap is widening as affordability challenges leave more households and businesses underinsured. At the same time, frameworks such as the EU CSRD sustainability reporting rules and supervisory stress testing are reshaping how insurers manage capital, resilience, and disclosures.
On the digital front, artificial intelligence (AI) is moving from pilots to scale under stricter rules like the EU AI Act, while cyber insurance struggles with systemic risk despite stabilizing prices. Distribution is shifting into ecosystems and embedded insurance, where coverage is offered at the point of need.
Insurers that adapt to these insurance industry trends will move beyond risk transfer toward delivering resilience, transparency, and trust — turning today’s pressures into tomorrow’s competitive edge.
Climate volatility has shifted from cyclical swings to a persistent pressure reshaping the economics of insurance. Secondary perils such as floods, wildfires, and storms now generate a steady flow of losses, while major catastrophes like hurricanes or earthquakes add sudden peaks that stretch capacity and capital. At the same time, premiums and inflation are rising faster than many households and businesses can absorb, leaving wider protection gaps and intensifying debates around affordability and access.
In this landscape, insurers, reinsurers, and policymakers are turning to new approaches — from public–private resilience schemes to parametric products — designed to keep coverage available while safeguarding financial stability. How the industry balances these competing demands of risk, resilience, and accessibility will shape both market trust and long-term growth.
As hazards intensify and inflation pushes costs higher, premiums rise — leaving more households and businesses underinsured, especially in vulnerable regions.
Today’s landscape
Premium growth is colliding with exposure growth. The cost-of-living crisis has already stretched household budgets, forcing many to reduce or cancel coverage. In catastrophe-prone areas and emerging markets, this dynamic is even sharper: more assets are at risk, yet fewer are protected. The result is both underinsurance and a growing pool of uninsured populations, turning the protection gap from a technical market issue into a social and political fault line.
The road ahead
Pressure on governments and regulators will intensify as affordability concerns become a mainstream policy issue. Calls for financial inclusion and accessibility will grow louder, requiring insurers to rethink how they balance risk-based pricing with societal expectations. Closing the gap won’t be optional; it will be central to industry legitimacy and to building resilience in the face of climate and economic shocks.
PESTLE: Social (S), Political/Legal (P/L), Economic (Econ)
Horizon: Near- to mid-term (0–5y)
Strategic action: Recognize — quantify protection gaps by segment and propose co-funded mitigation/resilience programs, while piloting affordable, inclusive solutions such as micro- and parametric insurance.
Today’s landscape
Natural catastrophe losses remain elevated, with Swiss Re projecting around $145B of insured nat-cat losses in 2025, up roughly 6% from the previous year. Secondary perils continue to drive most annual losses, while major hurricanes or earthquakes create peak-loss years. This steady drumbeat of claims is pressuring capital models, testing reinsurers, and forcing insurers to reassess exposure by peril and region.
The road ahead
Reinsurers warn that 2025 carries a non-trivial chance of a $300B loss year. As capital tightens and volatility persists, pricing and capacity will continue to harden in high-risk geographies. For insurers, the challenge is to maintain appetite in key markets while ensuring tail risks are properly modeled and capitalized.
PESTLE: Environmental (E), Economic (Econ)
Horizon: Near-term (0–2y)
Strategic action: Strategize — Reassess risk appetite by peril, adjust reinsurance thresholds, and model extreme-loss scenarios to stay prepared for persistently high volatility.
Fast, trigger-based covers are expanding from niche applications into mainstream climate and supply chain risks, offering speed and certainty in volatile conditions.
Today’s landscape
The parametric insurance market, currently valued at around $16B, is growing at double-digit rates, driven by demand for rapid payouts and transparent coverage. Climate volatility, coupled with more frequent protection gaps, is pushing governments, SMEs, and corporates to look for alternatives beyond traditional indemnity models. Early adoption in agriculture, travel, and catastrophe-exposed property has demonstrated the appeal of resilience-linked solutions.
The road ahead
Momentum is building for parametric products to integrate with adaptation finance and resilience services. Expect broader uptake in public-sector risk pools, supply-chain protection, and mid-market portfolios, where affordability and speed are critical. Over time, parametric insurance will shift from being a complement to becoming a core element of resilience strategy.
PESTLE: Environmental (E), Economic (Econ), Technological (T)
Horizon: Mid-term (2–5y)
Strategic action: Explore — pilot parametric modules in property, agri, and travel portfolios, bundling them with resilience services to meet evolving customer expectations.
Artificial intelligence, cyber resilience, and data governance have moved from experimental pilots to board-level priorities. Generative AI is scaling fast, but regulators in Europe and beyond are setting strict guardrails to govern its use in pricing and underwriting. At the same time, cyber remains one of the hardest systemic risks to insure, with pricing stabilizing but tail-risk exposures unresolved.
On the distribution side, embedded and ecosystem models are shifting how insurance is bought and delivered, raising new questions about transparency, accountability, and trust. Together, these dynamics show how the industry’s competitiveness will increasingly rest on its ability to balance innovation with governance.
AI adoption in insurance is accelerating, but new EU rules class life and health pricing as “high-risk,” requiring strict oversight and governance.
Today’s landscape
The European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA) issued a 2025 opinion clarifying supervisory expectations for AI. Under the EU AI Act, models used in life and health underwriting fall under the “high-risk” category. This classification brings obligations around governance, testing, explainability, and documentation that go beyond current practice.
The road ahead
Model risk frameworks, fairness audits, and explainability checks will become standard. Vendors will face rising pressure to provide full traceability, while insurers will need to embed board-level KPIs for AI adoption and governance.
PESTLE: Legal (L), Technological (T)
Horizon: Near-term (0–2y)
Strategic action: Incorporate — create line-of-business model inventories, bias testing protocols, and governance workflows aligned with AI Act requirements.
Cyber premiums are softening as controls improve, yet catastrophic systemic events remain largely uninsurable.
Today’s landscape
After years of hardening, the cyber insurance market stabilized in 2024–25, with brokers reporting rate decreases and increased capacity. Yet systemic cyber events — from widespread cloud outages to critical infrastructure attacks — still challenge the insurability boundary. Industry leaders continue to call for public-private backstops similar to terrorism or flood programs.
The road ahead
Expect modular coverage options, clearer exclusions around war and critical infrastructure, and greater political attention to backstop mechanisms in the EU, UK, and US. Without systemic solutions, capacity may remain constrained despite short-term stabilization.
PESTLE: Technological (T), Political/Legal (P/L)
Horizon: Near- to mid-term (0–5y)
Strategic action: Strategize — scenario-test systemic events, define aggregation limits, and engage policymakers to advance public-private backstop structures.
Insurance is increasingly purchased within partner ecosystems — at the moment of need, not through traditional portals.
Today’s landscape
Embedded insurance models are gaining momentum, particularly in personal P&C and life. Growth is fueled by digital platforms, auto and device integrations, and new B2B2C partnerships that deliver coverage seamlessly where customers interact. Global forecasts suggest rapid expansion through 2030, reshaping distribution economics.
The road ahead
Expect further integration into retail, mobility, and platform ecosystems, along with regulatory scrutiny over transparency, suitability, and consumer protection. For insurers, the competitive edge will hinge on partnerships, data-sharing agreements, and the ability to deliver frictionless claims experiences.
PESTLE: Technological (T), Economic (Econ), Legal (L)
Horizon: Near-term (0–2y)
Strategic action: Observe — identify leading ecosystem partners by segment and launch pilot embedded offerings with clear conversion and claims NPS metrics.
Shifts in demographics, macro shocks, and new reporting standards are reshaping the balance sheets of insurers. Longevity is redefining the relationship between protection, savings, and services, pushing insurers to move beyond traditional product silos. At the same time, supervisors are expanding stress tests to cover macro, climate, and liquidity risks, forcing firms to prove resilience under harsher scenarios.
In parallel, the CSRD regime is bringing sustainability data into mainstream reporting, with direct implications for underwriting and investment choices. Together, these pressures demand a more integrated view of customer needs, capital resilience, and transparent disclosure.
Aging populations are driving insurers to combine protection, savings, and services into holistic health-wealth models.
Today’s landscape
The Geneva Association and other industry bodies highlight a shift toward integrated strategies for longevity. Insurers are moving beyond the traditional divide between life and health to create bundled approaches that address longer lifespans, retirement adequacy, and wellness.
The road ahead
Hybrid products that merge wellness and income protection, decumulation advice, and service-led engagement are set to expand. Strong data governance will be essential as personalization deepens, with health outcomes and prevention becoming key differentiators.
PESTLE: Social (S), Economic (Econ), Technological (T)
Horizon: Mid-term (2–5y)
Strategic action: Explore — prototype longevity bundles for pre- and post-retirees with measurable health outcomes.
Supervisory stress testing is expanding as a regulatory force, pushing insurers to prove resilience under harsher macro, climate, and geopolitical scenarios.
Today’s landscape
EIOPA’s 2024 stress test assessed large EU groups, flagging gaps in scenario modeling and data lineage. National supervisors are echoing these findings, broadening expectations beyond solvency into liquidity, climate transition, and geopolitical shocks. While firms treat stress tests as compliance, supervisors are increasingly insisting that results feed directly into risk and capital planning.
The road ahead
Stress testing will not create new products or revenue streams, but it will shape how insurers deploy capital, buy reinsurance, and justify resilience to regulators and investors. Boards will need to treat supervisory scenarios as part of strategic planning, not just reporting. Those that use them to sharpen resilience and communicate credibility may secure an edge in stakeholder trust.
PESTLE: Political/Legal (P/L), Economic (Econ)
Horizon: Near-term (0–2y)
Strategic action: Incorporate — embed supervisory stress-test scenarios into capital allocation and reinsurance strategy, using results to inform board-level resilience narratives.
The EU’s new reporting regime is embedding sustainability data into insurer disclosures — and gradually into underwriting and investment decisions.
Today’s landscape
Insurers across the EU published their first CSRD reports in 2025, including transition plans and financed emissions. While progress is visible, insured-emissions data remains the toughest gap. Ongoing adjustments to the CSRD may reduce reporting requirements for SMEs, which could limit data availability for risk assessments and underwriting.
The road ahead
Disclosures will move beyond compliance. Supervisors and investors will expect insurers to connect CSRD data to how they select risks, price policies, and manage investments. Templates and thresholds will evolve, but the direction is clear: sustainability data is becoming a factor in underwriting legitimacy and capital allocation.
PESTLE: Legal (L), Environmental (E), Economic (Econ)
Horizon: Near-term (0–2y)
Strategic action: Recognize — define how CSRD metrics such as transition plans and emissions data shape both underwriting criteria and investment stewardship.