Insurance

AI-powered Foresight for Insurance Leaders

Emerging risks demand horizon scanning that’s continuous and AI-powered. Trendtracker delivers always-on foresight, helping insurers manage capital, strengthen underwriting, and drive innovation.

Extreme Weather Events
13
%
2.2
What's happening globally?

Frequent smaller disasters like floods and wildfires create a constant flow of claims, while occasional mega-events such as hurricanes or earthquakes add sudden spikes — leaving insurers with a permanently high and unstable loss environment.

What does this mean for the industry?

Climate volatility is no longer a side issue — it’s reshaping the very foundations of insurance. Rising claims, new regulations, and shifting customer demands are forcing insurers to rethink how they price risk, design coverage, and build resilience, while also proving their transparency to regulators and investors.

What are the key strategic actions?

Insurers can strengthen their position by investing in predictive analytics, expanding climate-focused products, and building partnerships with reinsurers. At the same time, digital claims tools and proactive regulatory engagement are essential to closing protection gaps and sustaining long-term trust.

Property Insurance Premium
39
%
2.2
What's happening globally?

After years of steady increases, global insurance premium rates have started to soften. Since late 2024, commercial and property insurance lines have seen consecutive quarters of decline, reflecting stronger competition, abundant market capacity, and easing reinsurance costs. The one exception is casualty insurance, which continues to rise due to litigation and claim severity.

What does this mean for the industry?

Falling rates signal a shift in market dynamics. For insurers, it means reduced pricing power and tighter margins in traditional lines. At the same time, clients are benefiting from more affordable coverage, forcing carriers to look for new ways to differentiate—whether through tailored products, better risk insights, or expanded advisory roles.

What are the key strategic actions?

To stay resilient, insurers can focus on innovation rather than pricing battles. This includes developing niche or specialized products, investing in advanced analytics to improve underwriting, and strengthening client relationships through value-added services. Positioning around expertise and agility will matter more than competing on rate alone.

Geopolitical Risk & Insurance Exposure
160
%
2.2
What's happening globally?

Geopolitical tensions — from wars and sanctions to shifting trade dynamics — are reshaping risk exposure across the insurance landscape. Events in regions like Ukraine, the Middle East, and Asia have heightened uncertainty, driving demand for products such as political risk, trade credit, cyber, and supply chain insurance. This turbulence is no longer episodic; it has become a structural feature of the global market.

What does this mean for the industry?

For insurers, geopolitical instability means navigating a world of volatility where underwriting models, pricing, and capital allocation are under constant pressure. Premiums in high-risk regions are rising, regulatory demands are tightening, and clients expect tailored solutions to protect against disruptions. The industry is being pushed to balance profitability with resilience, while also maintaining investor confidence and customer trust in unpredictable conditions.

What are the key strategic actions?

Insurers can respond by developing more specialized products — from political violence to supply chain disruption cover — and by strengthening reinsurance partnerships to spread risk. Advanced data and analytics will be critical to better assess geopolitical exposures and support more accurate pricing. At the same time, proactive regulatory engagement and diversification into lower-risk geographies can help companies sustain growth while adapting to an increasingly fragmented global order.

Why Trendtracker

Automated foresight for emerging risks

Insurers face long-tail risks that demand decades of planning, yet too often rely on short-term views. Trendtracker automates horizon scanning, giving insurers up-to-date foresight to manage capital exposure, strengthen underwriting, and identify profitable markets.

80%
of horizon-scanning companies say they’re better prepared for disruption.
(WEF, Deloitte)
55%
of global nat cat losses in 2024 were uninsured — exposing capital to climate risk.
(Munich RE)
4%
of executives plan beyond 10 years — yet insurers face long-tail risks.
(Bavarian Foresight Institute + Trendtracker analysis)

Why Trendtracker?

Discover what you don't see (yet)

Detect what others miss
Pick up early signals that rarely make it onto the radar — from shifting weather patterns to new solvency rules — before they disrupt underwriting, claims, or reserves.
Explore early-warning signals -->
Focus on the risks that move the numbers
Not every signal matters. Trendtracker filters thousands to highlight the exposures with real impact on solvency ratios, portfolio stability, and growth.
Prioritize critical exposures -->
Understand how risks collide
See how risks interact — like EV adoption driving repair cost inflation or ESG regulation reshaping product design — to understand the bigger picture.
See connected risk clusters -->
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The world is changing fast, but Trendtracker cuts through the complexity with AI-powered and human-scored trends to sharpen our decisions.

Why Trendtracker?

Monitor risks beyond human capacity

Keep up where humans can't
Trendtracker scans thousands of signals continuously — far beyond what any team can track manually — so you never miss shifts that affect underwriting, claims, or reserves.
See when risks intensify
Track how exposures evolve over time, from climate-driven claims inflation to new solvency requirements, and understand when they start to peak.
Assess potential impact.
Every signal has consequences. Quantify the potential effect on solvency, capital buffers, and portfolio performance — to stay aligned with strategy and regulation.
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We use Trendtracker to move from trend data to real investment conviction. It helps us connect macro foresight with ground-level opportunities.

Why Trendtracker?

Decide what truly shapes your future

Turn foresight into board-ready decisions
Horizon scanning turns into board-ready insight when the right signals are prioritized. Trendtracker highlights the risks and opportunities that matter most, giving strategy and risk teams a credible basis for action and investment decisions.
Build your first Board with an expert -->
Compare scenarios before regulators do
Model multiple futures — from economic shifts to new solvency rules — and see their impact on underwriting and reserves. Adjust strategy early, before external pressure forces your hand.
Test scenarios with our AI Analyst -->
Align foresight with long-term strategy
Connect insights across underwriting, risk, and strategy teams. Shared foresight strengthens capital planning, resilience, and innovation priorities.
Try Trendtracker for decision-making -->
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Insurance industry trends 2025 and beyond

The insurance industry in 2025 faces rising pressure from climate risk, demographic shifts, and new regulation. Natural catastrophes and secondary perils are driving higher losses, while the protection gap is widening as affordability challenges leave more households and businesses underinsured. At the same time, frameworks such as the EU CSRD sustainability reporting rules and supervisory stress testing are reshaping how insurers manage capital, resilience, and disclosures.

On the digital front, artificial intelligence (AI) is moving from pilots to scale under stricter rules like the EU AI Act, while cyber insurance struggles with systemic risk despite stabilizing prices. Distribution is shifting into ecosystems and embedded insurance, where coverage is offered at the point of need.

Insurers that adapt to these insurance industry trends will move beyond risk transfer toward delivering resilience, transparency, and trust — turning today’s pressures into tomorrow’s competitive edge.

Climate & Resilience Economics

Climate volatility has shifted from cyclical swings to a persistent pressure reshaping the economics of insurance. Secondary perils such as floods, wildfires, and storms now generate a steady flow of losses, while major catastrophes like hurricanes or earthquakes add sudden peaks that stretch capacity and capital. At the same time, premiums and inflation are rising faster than many households and businesses can absorb, leaving wider protection gaps and intensifying debates around affordability and access.

In this landscape, insurers, reinsurers, and policymakers are turning to new approaches — from public–private resilience schemes to parametric products — designed to keep coverage available while safeguarding financial stability. How the industry balances these competing demands of risk, resilience, and accessibility will shape both market trust and long-term growth.

Affordability crunch & the widening protection gap

As hazards intensify and inflation pushes costs higher, premiums rise — leaving more households and businesses underinsured, especially in vulnerable regions.

Today’s landscape

Premium growth is colliding with exposure growth. The cost-of-living crisis has already stretched household budgets, forcing many to reduce or cancel coverage. In catastrophe-prone areas and emerging markets, this dynamic is even sharper: more assets are at risk, yet fewer are protected. The result is both underinsurance and a growing pool of uninsured populations, turning the protection gap from a technical market issue into a social and political fault line.

The road ahead

Pressure on governments and regulators will intensify as affordability concerns become a mainstream policy issue. Calls for financial inclusion and accessibility will grow louder, requiring insurers to rethink how they balance risk-based pricing with societal expectations. Closing the gap won’t be optional; it will be central to industry legitimacy and to building resilience in the face of climate and economic shocks.

PESTLE: Social (S), Political/Legal (P/L), Economic (Econ)

Horizon: Near- to mid-term (0–5y)

Strategic action: Recognize — quantify protection gaps by segment and propose co-funded mitigation/resilience programs, while piloting affordable, inclusive solutions such as micro- and parametric insurance.

Secondary perils & peak-loss volatility

Today’s landscape

Natural catastrophe losses remain elevated, with Swiss Re projecting around $145B of insured nat-cat losses in 2025, up roughly 6% from the previous year. Secondary perils continue to drive most annual losses, while major hurricanes or earthquakes create peak-loss years. This steady drumbeat of claims is pressuring capital models, testing reinsurers, and forcing insurers to reassess exposure by peril and region.

The road ahead

Reinsurers warn that 2025 carries a non-trivial chance of a $300B loss year. As capital tightens and volatility persists, pricing and capacity will continue to harden in high-risk geographies. For insurers, the challenge is to maintain appetite in key markets while ensuring tail risks are properly modeled and capitalized.

PESTLE: Environmental (E), Economic (Econ)

Horizon: Near-term (0–2y)

Strategic action: Strategize — Reassess risk appetite by peril, adjust reinsurance thresholds, and model extreme-loss scenarios to stay prepared for persistently high volatility.

Parametric & resilience-linked solutions scale up

Fast, trigger-based covers are expanding from niche applications into mainstream climate and supply chain risks, offering speed and certainty in volatile conditions.

Today’s landscape

The parametric insurance market, currently valued at around $16B, is growing at double-digit rates, driven by demand for rapid payouts and transparent coverage. Climate volatility, coupled with more frequent protection gaps, is pushing governments, SMEs, and corporates to look for alternatives beyond traditional indemnity models. Early adoption in agriculture, travel, and catastrophe-exposed property has demonstrated the appeal of resilience-linked solutions.

The road ahead

Momentum is building for parametric products to integrate with adaptation finance and resilience services. Expect broader uptake in public-sector risk pools, supply-chain protection, and mid-market portfolios, where affordability and speed are critical. Over time, parametric insurance will shift from being a complement to becoming a core element of resilience strategy.

PESTLE: Environmental (E), Economic (Econ), Technological (T)

Horizon: Mid-term (2–5y)

Strategic action: Explore — pilot parametric modules in property, agri, and travel portfolios, bundling them with resilience services to meet evolving customer expectations.

Rising trends
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Natural Disaster
1400
%
4.8
Past year
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What is happening globally?
  • The rising frequency and severity of natural disasters are compelling insurers to innovate in risk management and collaboration. Insurers are increasingly adopting data-driven approaches and integrating advanced technologies like AI to enhance prediction, underwriting, and claims management for improved resilience and cost management.
  • Natural disasters are driving the adoption of parametric insurance and catastrophe bonds to mitigate associated financial risks. These tools are being embraced globally to create a more resilient insurance market and to bridge protection gaps through innovative funding mechanisms.
  • Emerging public-private partnerships, especially in developing regions, are creating robust frameworks to enhance resilience to natural disasters through cooperative efforts. This approach aims to manage risks more effectively and ensure the availability of emergency services during catastrophic events.
  • Catastrophe modeling is evolving with the integration of large language models (LLMs), enabling insurers to leverage unstructured data for more dynamic risk assessments. This transformation is critical in anticipating climate-related risks and refining risk management strategies.
  • The financial strain from natural disasters is increasingly challenging the resilience of the insurance industry, compelling insurers to reevaluate traditional underwriting models and pricing strategies to sustain amid escalating payout demands.
  • Global efforts to close the insurance protection gap are intensifying. Insurers, regulators, and governments worldwide are experimenting with innovative solutions like regional risk pools and flexible disaster protection programs to enhance coverage amidst growing disaster risks.

What is happening in the industry?

What are some emerging use cases of this trend?

What is the impact of this on our industry?
  • The increasing frequency and severity of natural disasters are leading to greater insured losses and driving up costs for policyholders as insurers raise premiums to cover these risks. This places a financial strain on both individual and business policyholders who have to deal with escalating insurance costs while relying on insurers for claims payments after disasters occur. As a result, insurers are under pressure to enhance their claim-processing capabilities to prevent customer attrition and maintain trust and customer satisfaction, especially in the aftermath of disasters.
  • Regulatory bodies are increasingly involved in ensuring that insurance companies maintain adequate solvency to handle high volumes of claims due to natural disasters. This could lead to stricter regulations around capital reserves and greater scrutiny of insurers' risk management practices, compelling insurers to enhance their underwriting processes and ensure compliance to avoid penalties and maintain operational licenses.
  • Insurance investors and shareholders face growing pressures as increased disaster-related claims can decrease profitability, prompting insurers to seek reinsurance and innovative financial products like catastrophe bonds to manage risks more effectively. Successful adaptation and risk management could improve investor confidence and provide more stable returns.
  • The role of Reinsurers grows more crucial as primary insurers seek partnerships to mitigate the financial burden of large catastrophe claims. As a result, reinsurers might see demand for their services increase, which can lead to recalibrations of existing agreements, new partnerships, and more dynamic pricing models to accommodate heightened risk landscapes.
  • Economically, the volatility caused by natural disasters affects the investment strategies of insurers as they navigate fluctuating interest rates and the need for liquidity during high-claim periods. This influences insurers’ financial strategies, necessitating diversified and resilient investments to withstand claims surges while maintaining profitability and growth.
  • Socially, demographic changes such as urbanization, increase vulnerability to natural disasters, leading to higher claims and influencing the types of insurance products offered. Insurers could focus on developing products that cater to urban residents, such as renters insurance and supplemental disaster coverage, to address these evolving risks.
  • Technologically, advancements in data analytics and AI are pivotal for insurers to enhance risk assessment and claims processing, offering opportunities to adopt sophisticated modeling techniques to predict and mitigate disaster impacts, improve cost efficiency, and enhance customer service delivery.
  • Environmental factors, particularly more frequent and intense natural disasters, compel insurers to continuously update their risk models and consider environmental risks in underwriting processes. This emphasizes the need for new insurance products focused on climate resilience to attract and retain environmentally conscious policyholders.
  • Strategically, insurance companies should focus on risk management excellence by investing in advanced underwriting technologies and diversifying their reinsurance partnerships. Moreover, enhancing customer experience through quick and responsive claims processes and pursuing product innovation in the realm of disaster and climate-related insurance can drive growth and operational efficiency.
What are the opportunities for this?

What are the risks related to this?

What are the key strategic actions we could take based on this?
  • To mitigate the rising costs of natural disasters, insurers could diversify their risk management strategies by increasing reliance on reinsurance and catastrophe bonds. This would stabilize premium pricing and ensure long-term solvency, ultimately benefiting policyholders through more stable offerings.
  • Insurers could harness advanced data analytics and AI to improve catastrophe modeling, leading to better risk assessment and underwriting. This focus on technological excellence contributes to product innovation, allowing the development of specialized insurance offerings that address evolving environmental dynamics and customer needs.
  • Promote AI-driven claims processing solutions to dramatically decrease settlement times post-disaster. By enhancing customer experience, insurers would improve retention rates, build policyholder trust, and remain competitive in the customer experience landscape.
  • Strengthen public-private partnerships to bridge the catastrophe protection gap. This collaborative approach would foster regulatory compliance and produce robust, innovative disaster risk management solutions, benefiting policyholders, regulatory bodies, and investors alike.
  • Explore investment in parametric insurance products to offer more predictable and quicker payouts after natural catastrophes. This could enhance operational efficiency, provide a competitive edge, and ensure financial stability by managing liabilities effectively.
What are the potential scenarios?

What's the outcome of a Porter’s Five Forces Analysis

Underinsurance
476
%
7.3
Past year
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What is happening globally?
  • The underinsurance gap is a critical issue exacerbating financial vulnerabilities. Due to climate change, the frequency and severity of natural disasters are escalating, contributing to increased premiums that many cannot afford. This trend is intensifying as insurers face mounting challenges in accurately pricing risk.
  • In the context of rising climate risks, underinsurance is a growing problem. Insurers are struggling to provide adequate coverage, which impacts economic stability. Innovation in risk assessment and management is crucial to curb the trend of underinsurance.
  • Behavioral science can mitigate barriers to insurance uptake by addressing decision-making complexities in consumers. Simplifying policy terms and helping consumers understand insurance can potentially reduce the underinsurance trend, especially among the underserved.
  • The challenge of underinsurance is particularly pronounced in underserved markets, where mortality risks are inadequately captured by traditional models. Tailored products leveraging advanced data can bridge gaps, suggesting a shift towards more inclusive models.
  • Recent natural disasters highlight existing underinsurance concerns, worsened by the slow response from insurers. Insurers must improve claims handling and customer communication to diminish the underinsurance gap and build trust with policyholders.

What is happening in the industry?

What are some emerging use cases of this trend?

What is the impact of this on our industry?
  • Underinsurance in the insurance industry presents significant challenges and opportunities. It impacts policyholders by increasing financial vulnerability and potential dissatisfaction when claims do not cover actual losses. Improved education and clearer communication regarding policy scope and coverage limits are essential to mitigate this issue. Insurance companies must also focus on ensuring comprehensive coverage options that match clients' expectations and actual risks.
  • Regulatory bodies are increasingly scrutinizing underinsurance, leading to legal and reputational challenges for insurance companies. To navigate this, insurers must enhance their compliance procedures and transparency around coverage terms. Fines and negative publicity can arise from failing to meet regulatory standards, emphasizing the need for proactive regulatory engagement and meticulous policy management.
  • Underinsurance affects investors/shareholders by potentially harming company valuation through increased claims disputes and lower customer satisfaction. This impact necessitates stronger risk assessment and disclosure practices to reassure investors about future financial stability and adherence to regulatory requirements, thereby protecting investor interests.
  • For employees, particularly underwriters and claims adjusters, underinsurance complicates risk assessments and claims processing. There is a pressing need for ongoing training and the implementation of advanced technologies to assess risks more accurately and design better-tailored insurance solutions, ultimately improving policyholder satisfaction and employee efficiency.
  • Underinsurance exacerbates the economic risks for insurance companies by increasing liabilities in unexpected loss scenarios, thereby affecting premium pricing strategies and profitability. Insurers should adopt data-driven pricing models and continuously review and adjust premiums to reflect real risk profiles accurately, ensuring both competitive rates and adequate coverage.
  • Social factors such as demographic changes impact underinsurance trends, with aging populations and income disparities often leading to inadequate coverage. Insurers must develop targeted products and education campaigns to bridge the insurance gap for vulnerable demographics, thus enhancing market penetration and social responsibility.
  • Technological advances offer solutions to the problem of underinsurance by enabling personalized risk assessments and improved customer interactions. Insurers should invest in AI and data analytics to enhance underwriting precision and claims processing efficiency, facilitating better risk management and customer satisfaction.
  • Environmental factors, including increased natural disasters, highlight the critical need for adequate coverage and innovative insurance products that address evolving risks. Insurers must innovate climate-resilient policies and improve collaborations with regulatory bodies and communities to better manage environmental risks and protect policyholders.

What are the opportunities for this?

What are the risks related to this?

What are the key strategic actions we could take based on this?
  • Leveraging AI to enhance underwriting allows the insurance company to monitor real-time risk trends, improving the accuracy of pricing models and minimizing underinsurance gaps. This action capitalizes on technological advancements, contributing to operational efficiency and superior risk management practices, while fostering a more transparent and dependable customer experience.
  • Fostering personalized insurance solutions for underserved markets can address social and demographic shifts. By tailoring products to the specific needs of underinsured segments, companies enhance customer engagement and retention, driving product innovation and strengthening financial stability in response to changing societal demands.
  • Insurance companies can support preventative measures against potential underinsurance caused by climate change by promoting comprehensive policy review services. This proactive approach improves risk management and enhances customer confidence and retention, aligning with environmental and economic factors affecting policyholder decisions and premiums.
  • Implementing digital platforms to simplify complex policy options helps bridge the gap in insurance comprehension. This action not only enhances customer experience and satisfaction but also aligns with economic and technological trends, fostering better customer retention through informed decision-making and ease of access to insurance products.
  • Collaborating with reinsurers to create innovative risk-sharing models can mitigate the impact of underinsurance. Such partnerships enhance financial stability by reducing the burden of liabilities on individual firms, aligning with regulatory and economic factors that influence insurance operations.
  • Investing in community education initiatives about adequate insurance coverage tackles social barriers to underinsurance. By raising awareness and understanding, insurance firms improve customer experience and retention, address social challenges, and can enhance market penetration in underserved areas with culturally relevant products..

What are the potential scenarios?

What's the outcome of a Porter’s Five Forces Analysis

Parametric Insurance
68
%
3.8
Past year
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What is happening globally?
  • The parametric insurance market is experiencing robust global growth, projected to reach USD 40.6 billion by 2033, driven by its ability to provide rapid payouts and cover emerging climate risks. This growth is supported by advancements in data analytics, which improve risk assessment accuracy and processing speed.
  • Insurers are increasingly adopting parametric solutions to tackle climate-related challenges, especially in regions vulnerable to natural disasters. This approach allows for quicker financial relief post-disaster, enhancing community resilience and reducing the economic impact of events like wildfires and hurricanes.
  • Technological integration, notably AI and blockchain, is reshaping parametric insurance. AI is enhancing underwriting and claims processing, while blockchain ensures transparency. These technologies are pivotal in evolving parametric offerings to meet diverse insurance needs, from climate to economic risks.
  • Partnerships are key in expanding parametric insurance. Collaborations between global insurers, MGAs, and tech companies allow for innovative products addressing specific risks like earthquakes and weather, facilitating access to new markets.
  • In regions like the Pacific, parametric insurance is crucial for disaster management and resilience, providing rapid financial response mechanisms. This model is essential where traditional insurance solutions are insufficient due to the swift and unpredictable nature of climate impacts.

What is happening in the industry?

What are some emerging use cases of this trend?

What is the impact of this on our industry?
  • Parametric insurance is transforming the transactional environment for policyholders by offering fast and predetermined payouts during specific events, reducing the waiting times associated with traditional claims processing. This enhances customer satisfaction, thus helping in customer retention and acquisition. Regulatory bodies will need to adjust to the nuances of parametric policies, perhaps redefining criteria for coverage and claims transparency. Investors will likely perceive parametric insurance favorably due to its flexibility and potential for swift market adaptation, which can lead to higher returns. Insurers will need their employees to focus on developing and managing these innovative policies. Reinsurers might see a change in demand as parametric insurance can sometimes bypass traditional reinsurance requirements.
  • Politically, parametric insurance could prompt regulatory shifts to accommodate its distinct features, like index-based triggers, which differ from traditional loss-based claims. Economically, the growth of parametric insurance can drive stability within insurance markets by mitigating uninsured losses and encouraging economic recovery post-disasters due to its quick payout nature. Socially, as climate-related events rise in frequency, parametric insurance may become more appealing to a broader demographic, offering tailored solutions to diverse groups. Technologically, parametric insurance leverages advancements in real-time data analytics and monitoring systems, enhancing the accuracy of risk assessment and pricing while potentially reducing operational costs tied to claims processing. Environmentally, this form of insurance responds directly to the increased need to manage disaster recovery and can drive significant interest in sustainable practices, as seen in initiatives protecting ecosystems.
  • In terms of strategic objectives, parametric insurance can propel Product Innovation by encouraging the development of niche products like weather or disaster-specific policies, tapping into emerging market needs. For Risk Management and Underwriting Excellence, parametric models offer a chance to enhance accuracy with precise triggers, reducing basis risks and aligning risk pricing more closely with actual event occurrence, improving loss ratios. Customer Experience and Retention can improve, as policyholders benefit from quick, automated payouts, increasing trust and satisfaction. Operational Efficiency will likely see gains due to reduced claims handling times and costs. Moreover, Regulatory Compliance will require close collaboration with governing bodies to integrate new rules that accompany parametric models. Financial Stability and Growth will be bolstered by attracting a cautious client base with transparency and reliability promised by parametric solutions.

What are the opportunities for this?

What are the risks related to this?

What are the key strategic actions we could take based on this?
  • Explore opportunities in parametric insurance collaborations to enhance risk management for customers impacted by climate change, such as typhoon and earthquake solutions. These partnerships can help improve customer experience and retention by providing rapid payouts after disasters, thus addressing increasing environmental risks.
  • Invest in AI-driven parametric products that could advance underwriting excellence and operational efficiency. This innovation could enhance risk assessment models, improve customer engagement, and meet demand for new types of coverage, aligning with technological advancements and increasing demand for disaster recovery solutions.
  • Parametric insurance offerings for emerging risks like AI-driven job loss or gig economy uncertainties can boost product innovation. These create new revenue streams and reinforce the company's product portfolio to match changing economic and social dynamics.
  • Adopt data-driven strategies and advanced models for pricing and risk assessment in parametric insurance. This addresses the challenge of natural disasters, ensuring products remain economically competitive and maintain financial stability and growth.
  • Implement systems to integrate parametric solutions for existing policy structures, expanding market reach and improving regulatory compliance. These offerings can respond to the legal and economic landscape shifts, while providing security against environmental threats and market volatility.
  • Take advantage of partnerships with reinsurers and parametric insurance specialists to embed resilience into insurance offerings. This ensures comprehensive risk management and long-term sustainability, enhancing customer trust and operational efficiency under increasing environmental pressures.

What are the potential scenarios?

What's the outcome of a Porter’s Five Forces Analysis

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What’s hidden could shape your strategy.

AI, Cyber & Data Governance

Artificial intelligence, cyber resilience, and data governance have moved from experimental pilots to board-level priorities. Generative AI is scaling fast, but regulators in Europe and beyond are setting strict guardrails to govern its use in pricing and underwriting. At the same time, cyber remains one of the hardest systemic risks to insure, with pricing stabilizing but tail-risk exposures unresolved.

On the distribution side, embedded and ecosystem models are shifting how insurance is bought and delivered, raising new questions about transparency, accountability, and trust. Together, these dynamics show how the industry’s competitiveness will increasingly rest on its ability to balance innovation with governance.

--> Watch the webinar to learn how the EU AI Act introduces new responsibilities for insurers, platforms, and service providers.

AI at scale under the EU AI Act & EIOPA oversight

AI adoption in insurance is accelerating, but new EU rules class life and health pricing as “high-risk,” requiring strict oversight and governance.

Today’s landscape

The European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA) issued a 2025 opinion clarifying supervisory expectations for AI. Under the EU AI Act, models used in life and health underwriting fall under the “high-risk” category. This classification brings obligations around governance, testing, explainability, and documentation that go beyond current practice.

The road ahead

Model risk frameworks, fairness audits, and explainability checks will become standard. Vendors will face rising pressure to provide full traceability, while insurers will need to embed board-level KPIs for AI adoption and governance.

PESTLE: Legal (L), Technological (T)

Horizon: Near-term (0–2y)

Strategic action: Incorporate — create line-of-business model inventories, bias testing protocols, and governance workflows aligned with AI Act requirements.

Cyber insurance: stabilized pricing, systemic tail risk unresolved

Cyber premiums are softening as controls improve, yet catastrophic systemic events remain largely uninsurable.

Today’s landscape

After years of hardening, the cyber insurance market stabilized in 2024–25, with brokers reporting rate decreases and increased capacity. Yet systemic cyber events — from widespread cloud outages to critical infrastructure attacks — still challenge the insurability boundary. Industry leaders continue to call for public-private backstops similar to terrorism or flood programs.

The road ahead

Expect modular coverage options, clearer exclusions around war and critical infrastructure, and greater political attention to backstop mechanisms in the EU, UK, and US. Without systemic solutions, capacity may remain constrained despite short-term stabilization.

PESTLE: Technological (T), Political/Legal (P/L)

Horizon: Near- to mid-term (0–5y)

Strategic action: Strategize — scenario-test systemic events, define aggregation limits, and engage policymakers to advance public-private backstop structures.

Embedded & ecosystem distribution

Insurance is increasingly purchased within partner ecosystems — at the moment of need, not through traditional portals.

Today’s landscape

Embedded insurance models are gaining momentum, particularly in personal P&C and life. Growth is fueled by digital platforms, auto and device integrations, and new B2B2C partnerships that deliver coverage seamlessly where customers interact. Global forecasts suggest rapid expansion through 2030, reshaping distribution economics.

The road ahead

Expect further integration into retail, mobility, and platform ecosystems, along with regulatory scrutiny over transparency, suitability, and consumer protection. For insurers, the competitive edge will hinge on partnerships, data-sharing agreements, and the ability to deliver frictionless claims experiences.

PESTLE: Technological (T), Economic (Econ), Legal (L)

Horizon: Near-term (0–2y)

Strategic action: Observe — identify leading ecosystem partners by segment and launch pilot embedded offerings with clear conversion and claims NPS metrics.

Rising trends
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Cyber Insurance
1400
%
4.8
Past year
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What is happening globally?
  • The rise in natural disasters is pushing global insurance premiums, especially for catastrophe coverage, to new heights. Insurers are increasingly adopting AI and data analytics to enhance predictive accuracy and financial resilience against these events, thereby improving customer experiences.
  • Insurers are turning to parametric insurance to address the expanding coverage gap, particularly for unpredictable events like tsunamis. This development may improve financial security for policyholders by offering more tailored and prompt payouts.
  • The cost of insuring against natural disasters continues to surge, with insurance carriers using advanced modeling tools, such as catastrophe bonds, to hedge risks. This trend underscores the industry's ongoing effort to maintain stability amid increasing disasters.
  • Collaboration between the public and private sectors is becoming essential to address the growing protection gap in disaster insurance. Initiatives like risk pooling and parametric solutions aim to enhance resilience against catastrophic losses.
  • The frequency and impact of natural disasters have intensified, necessitating innovative approaches to risk management. AI-powered tools are revolutionizing claims processing, enabling insurers to handle claims more efficiently and satisfy customer expectations.
  • Regulatory frameworks are evolving to support more sustainable insurance solutions as traditional methods become financially untenable. Governments and insurers are taking steps to address climate-related risks, ensuring long-term viability for both businesses and policyholders.
What is happening in the industry?

What are some emerging use cases of this trend?

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What’s hidden could shape your strategy.

Demographics, Balance Sheets & Reporting

Shifts in demographics, macro shocks, and new reporting standards are reshaping the balance sheets of insurers. Longevity is redefining the relationship between protection, savings, and services, pushing insurers to move beyond traditional product silos. At the same time, supervisors are expanding stress tests to cover macro, climate, and liquidity risks, forcing firms to prove resilience under harsher scenarios.

In parallel, the CSRD regime is bringing sustainability data into mainstream reporting, with direct implications for underwriting and investment choices. Together, these pressures demand a more integrated view of customer needs, capital resilience, and transparent disclosure.

Longevity & integrated health-wealth propositions

Aging populations are driving insurers to combine protection, savings, and services into holistic health-wealth models.

Today’s landscape

The Geneva Association and other industry bodies highlight a shift toward integrated strategies for longevity. Insurers are moving beyond the traditional divide between life and health to create bundled approaches that address longer lifespans, retirement adequacy, and wellness.

--> Discover the 21 blind spots revealed by 50 insurance leaders in our strategic intelligence workshop with Geneva Association.

The road ahead

Hybrid products that merge wellness and income protection, decumulation advice, and service-led engagement are set to expand. Strong data governance will be essential as personalization deepens, with health outcomes and prevention becoming key differentiators.

PESTLE: Social (S), Economic (Econ), Technological (T)

Horizon: Mid-term (2–5y)

Strategic action: Explore — prototype longevity bundles for pre- and post-retirees with measurable health outcomes.

Macro/geopolitical resilience under supervisory stress testing

Supervisory stress testing is expanding as a regulatory force, pushing insurers to prove resilience under harsher macro, climate, and geopolitical scenarios.

Today’s landscape

EIOPA’s 2024 stress test assessed large EU groups, flagging gaps in scenario modeling and data lineage. National supervisors are echoing these findings, broadening expectations beyond solvency into liquidity, climate transition, and geopolitical shocks. While firms treat stress tests as compliance, supervisors are increasingly insisting that results feed directly into risk and capital planning.

The road ahead

Stress testing will not create new products or revenue streams, but it will shape how insurers deploy capital, buy reinsurance, and justify resilience to regulators and investors. Boards will need to treat supervisory scenarios as part of strategic planning, not just reporting. Those that use them to sharpen resilience and communicate credibility may secure an edge in stakeholder trust.

PESTLE: Political/Legal (P/L), Economic (Econ)

Horizon: Near-term (0–2y)

Strategic action: Incorporate — embed supervisory stress-test scenarios into capital allocation and reinsurance strategy, using results to inform board-level resilience narratives.

Sustainability disclosures under CSRD (Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive)

The EU’s new reporting regime is embedding sustainability data into insurer disclosures — and gradually into underwriting and investment decisions.

Today’s landscape

Insurers across the EU published their first CSRD reports in 2025, including transition plans and financed emissions. While progress is visible, insured-emissions data remains the toughest gap. Ongoing adjustments to the CSRD may reduce reporting requirements for SMEs, which could limit data availability for risk assessments and underwriting.

The road ahead

Disclosures will move beyond compliance. Supervisors and investors will expect insurers to connect CSRD data to how they select risks, price policies, and manage investments. Templates and thresholds will evolve, but the direction is clear: sustainability data is becoming a factor in underwriting legitimacy and capital allocation.

PESTLE: Legal (L), Environmental (E), Economic (Econ)

Horizon: Near-term (0–2y)

Strategic action: Recognize — define how CSRD metrics such as transition plans and emissions data shape both underwriting criteria and investment stewardship.

Rising trends
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Geopolictics
1400
%
4.8
Past year
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What is happening globally?
  • The rise in natural disasters is pushing global insurance premiums, especially for catastrophe coverage, to new heights. Insurers are increasingly adopting AI and data analytics to enhance predictive accuracy and financial resilience against these events, thereby improving customer experiences.
  • Insurers are turning to parametric insurance to address the expanding coverage gap, particularly for unpredictable events like tsunamis. This development may improve financial security for policyholders by offering more tailored and prompt payouts.
  • The cost of insuring against natural disasters continues to surge, with insurance carriers using advanced modeling tools, such as catastrophe bonds, to hedge risks. This trend underscores the industry's ongoing effort to maintain stability amid increasing disasters.
  • Collaboration between the public and private sectors is becoming essential to address the growing protection gap in disaster insurance. Initiatives like risk pooling and parametric solutions aim to enhance resilience against catastrophic losses.
  • The frequency and impact of natural disasters have intensified, necessitating innovative approaches to risk management. AI-powered tools are revolutionizing claims processing, enabling insurers to handle claims more efficiently and satisfy customer expectations.
  • Regulatory frameworks are evolving to support more sustainable insurance solutions as traditional methods become financially untenable. Governments and insurers are taking steps to address climate-related risks, ensuring long-term viability for both businesses and policyholders.
What is happening in the industry?

What are some emerging use cases of this trend?

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